It looks like the theocracy in Iran isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Think about it for a moment.
In the zero sum game of Middle Eastern politics succession issues are normally resolved via the bullet rather than the ballot. But for the sake of discussion, let's assume that the opposition will have bullets -- lots of them. Then where would the leaders of the current regime go?
Iraq and Afghanistan? Not likely; too many American Soldiers there.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE? They were never fans of Iran's Shiite strain of Islam.
Jordan? Too close to Washington.
Syria? Not terribly secure.
In other words, it's not like they could flee and live out there years comfortably. Moreover, they would feel as if they had targets on their back. (The Mossad, I'm sure, wouldn't mind terminating a few of the mullahs.) Ironically, Iran may be the safest place for them -- as long as they hold power.
Furthermore, think of the shame of fleeing -- just like the Shah did 30 years ago.
So, it's likely that they're going to stay or die trying. In the interim, they will ratchet up the violence to keep the protesters in line.
A lot of blood may be shed, but it may not change a thing.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
John Kerry's To Do List for Today
He's running downfield interference for our suddently inarticulate President -- when the topic is Iran. (A pesky distraction.)
JKF gets extra credit for denouncing unnamed neocons. Good to know that he's not harboring any resentment over his 2004 loss for the White House.
JKF gets extra credit for denouncing unnamed neocons. Good to know that he's not harboring any resentment over his 2004 loss for the White House.
What Bush Wrought
Twenty years ago I had the good fortune to be living in Germany.
You may recall that a wall in the city of Berlin collapsed late in 1989. Although I visited the wall earlier that summer, I had a notion it wouldn't be standing much longer. The wall separated the free people of the west from the oppressed people of the east.
About a quarter century before, President John Kennedy visited the divided city and claimed solidarity with the citizens of Berlin. A couple of decades later, President Ronald Reagan demanded that the Communist party secretary of the Soviet Union (rather than the East German leadership) to tear down the wall.
Both were admirable sentiments; I'm not sure they were persuasive.
But like the walls of Jericho, it came a tumblin' down.
In Iran, there are protesters -- perhaps tens of thousands of them -- defying death threats. Originally it was to denounce a blatantly rigged election and now it's morphed into something more -- perhaps an existential threat to the theocrats that have ruled that nation for the last thirty years.
Some have claimed that President Barrack Obama's recent speech in Cairo have encouraged the protesters.
Get real.
The President's speech may be historic, but it certainly wasn't memorable. For as hyped an orator as he is -- do you recall the takeaway quote? Neither do I.
Over the past several years the Iranians have seen their neighbors -- the Afghans and the Iraqis -- vote. Were those elections perfect? Hardly. But they were fair enough to lead some in Iran to believe that they should have the same opportunity. (And you have to believe that the Iranians think themselves as superior to their neighbors.)
Even in an election where the candidates were approved by the mullahs (who hold the real power).
So you have a situation where the results of a sham election are so obviously rigged (why it would take the Administration time to figure that out is beyond me) the masses have simply had enough.
Now this protests have become something that nobody -- except those who believe in freedom -- could have expected. Or, perhaps the guy who made free elections possible in Afghanistan and Iraq.
George W. Bush.
And he wasn't known for his speeches. Go figure.
You may recall that a wall in the city of Berlin collapsed late in 1989. Although I visited the wall earlier that summer, I had a notion it wouldn't be standing much longer. The wall separated the free people of the west from the oppressed people of the east.
About a quarter century before, President John Kennedy visited the divided city and claimed solidarity with the citizens of Berlin. A couple of decades later, President Ronald Reagan demanded that the Communist party secretary of the Soviet Union (rather than the East German leadership) to tear down the wall.
Both were admirable sentiments; I'm not sure they were persuasive.
But like the walls of Jericho, it came a tumblin' down.
It wasn't the biggest surprise when the wall ultimately fell. By 1989, the Iron Curtain was rusting and East Europeans were scurrying through the cracks. After years, nay decades, of a second class existence -- brought on by an accident of geography -- the populace was voting on foot to greener pastures in the West. After a while you realize that you can only tolerate so much.
In Iran, there are protesters -- perhaps tens of thousands of them -- defying death threats. Originally it was to denounce a blatantly rigged election and now it's morphed into something more -- perhaps an existential threat to the theocrats that have ruled that nation for the last thirty years.
Some have claimed that President Barrack Obama's recent speech in Cairo have encouraged the protesters.
Get real.
The President's speech may be historic, but it certainly wasn't memorable. For as hyped an orator as he is -- do you recall the takeaway quote? Neither do I.
Over the past several years the Iranians have seen their neighbors -- the Afghans and the Iraqis -- vote. Were those elections perfect? Hardly. But they were fair enough to lead some in Iran to believe that they should have the same opportunity. (And you have to believe that the Iranians think themselves as superior to their neighbors.)
Even in an election where the candidates were approved by the mullahs (who hold the real power).
So you have a situation where the results of a sham election are so obviously rigged (why it would take the Administration time to figure that out is beyond me) the masses have simply had enough.
Now this protests have become something that nobody -- except those who believe in freedom -- could have expected. Or, perhaps the guy who made free elections possible in Afghanistan and Iraq.
George W. Bush.
And he wasn't known for his speeches. Go figure.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Type In "Walpin" and...wait
Type in "Gerald Walpin" in the search engines of the New York Daily News and the New York Times and you get, well, nothing.
The New York Post, in contrast, has a couple of references to him.
In some circles, what Mr. Walpin has to say, seems like a pretty important deal.
One could conclude that the Daily News and the Times are running interference for the President since Mr. Walpin is highly critical of the man who fired him.
Some may miss the era of the big city newspaper when it comes. (And it will come.)
I won't.
The New York Post, in contrast, has a couple of references to him.
In some circles, what Mr. Walpin has to say, seems like a pretty important deal.
One could conclude that the Daily News and the Times are running interference for the President since Mr. Walpin is highly critical of the man who fired him.
Some may miss the era of the big city newspaper when it comes. (And it will come.)
I won't.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Intel Failure?
Perhaps.
Given the cautious approach that Team Obama is taking to the events unfolding in Iran, one can't help but wonder if they have been blindsided.
For an election that was held (and called) on a Saturday, it was definitely disappointing to hear the Vice President say, in a Sunday morning interview, that they (the administration) were going to review what occurred.
(Unfortunately the interview wasn't all that it was cracked up to be -- Biden invited David Gregory over to his house afterwards. I could never imagine Russert and Cheney yukking it up after a MTP episode. )
Biden's tepid response suggests that our layers of intelligence didn't list that the election would be stolen for Mahmoud Amhadinejad and tens of thousands would protest as a probability.
There is, of course, the political calculus. President Obama, doesn't want to be in a position where his support would diminish the standing of the protesters, nor does he want to be seen as losing a chance to nudge an internal reformation of the Iranian regime. There's a reason why he voted "present" so often as a state senator.
In any event, it seems that he had to start at square one or somewhere close to it.
As to the way forward -- it seems that they believe that flexibility is the key to indecision.
Given the cautious approach that Team Obama is taking to the events unfolding in Iran, one can't help but wonder if they have been blindsided.
For an election that was held (and called) on a Saturday, it was definitely disappointing to hear the Vice President say, in a Sunday morning interview, that they (the administration) were going to review what occurred.
(Unfortunately the interview wasn't all that it was cracked up to be -- Biden invited David Gregory over to his house afterwards. I could never imagine Russert and Cheney yukking it up after a MTP episode. )
Biden's tepid response suggests that our layers of intelligence didn't list that the election would be stolen for Mahmoud Amhadinejad and tens of thousands would protest as a probability.
There is, of course, the political calculus. President Obama, doesn't want to be in a position where his support would diminish the standing of the protesters, nor does he want to be seen as losing a chance to nudge an internal reformation of the Iranian regime. There's a reason why he voted "present" so often as a state senator.
In any event, it seems that he had to start at square one or somewhere close to it.
As to the way forward -- it seems that they believe that flexibility is the key to indecision.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
House of Hypocrisy
From the Associated Press:
MANCHESTER, Tenn. (AP) - Bruce Springsteen astonished the Bonnaroo crowd with a passionate three-hour performance, offering sweat and rock 'n' roll to inspire, he said, in "hard times."
...
"We didn't come all the way down to the beautiful Tennessee hills just to rock the house," said Springsteen early in the performance. "We came down here tonight because we want to build a house. That's right. Right here in this field. ... A house of love. A house of hope."
Sure, but given the ticket prices that were charged, the only thing being built was Springsteen's bank account. Big time.
BTW, we're certainly living in the "Age of Obama" when part of the price of admission is a mandated charitable donation.
MANCHESTER, Tenn. (AP) - Bruce Springsteen astonished the Bonnaroo crowd with a passionate three-hour performance, offering sweat and rock 'n' roll to inspire, he said, in "hard times."
...
"We didn't come all the way down to the beautiful Tennessee hills just to rock the house," said Springsteen early in the performance. "We came down here tonight because we want to build a house. That's right. Right here in this field. ... A house of love. A house of hope."
Sure, but given the ticket prices that were charged, the only thing being built was Springsteen's bank account. Big time.
BTW, we're certainly living in the "Age of Obama" when part of the price of admission is a mandated charitable donation.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Ruminations
REHAB: Congressman Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) is being treated -- once-again -- for an undisclosed ailment. The Congressman, the son of the ailing Senator Kennedy of Massachusetts, has been treated before for depression, alcoholism, and drug addiction. In a statement, Kennedy noted, "...he will do whatever it takes to preserve his health." Everything that is but resign his seat.
BUS TOSS: It seems that David Letterman was deemed expendable by the folks over at the National Organization of Women. (After all, Letterman is a cantankerous over the hill talk show host.) Too bad they lost their cred when they failed to support Jones, Broderick, and Wiley ten years ago when NOW had a shred of credibility.
DARE NOT SPEAK ITS NAME: Here's how a joke about statuatory rape is now being described: "... and the now oft-repeated joke about Palin’s daughter and Alex Rodriguez..." Given that description, how harmful could it be?
EMPATHY: If Mr. & Mrs. Obama want to dine in the Big Apple and in the City of Lights, go ahead. But in times like these, doesn't it strike one as being a bit out of touch?
INVITES: So much for any plan to invite both Rahm Emanuel and Jeremiah Wright to the same party. Seems the latter has a problem with the former's beliefs. A team of rivals indeed.
YOUR NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER AT WORK: Regular readers of this blog saw this happening from Day One.
DESPAIR & STATUS QUO: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wins in Iran. If this had been a real election than a simple circus, there'd be something to talk about.
BUS TOSS: It seems that David Letterman was deemed expendable by the folks over at the National Organization of Women. (After all, Letterman is a cantankerous over the hill talk show host.) Too bad they lost their cred when they failed to support Jones, Broderick, and Wiley ten years ago when NOW had a shred of credibility.
DARE NOT SPEAK ITS NAME: Here's how a joke about statuatory rape is now being described: "... and the now oft-repeated joke about Palin’s daughter and Alex Rodriguez..." Given that description, how harmful could it be?
EMPATHY: If Mr. & Mrs. Obama want to dine in the Big Apple and in the City of Lights, go ahead. But in times like these, doesn't it strike one as being a bit out of touch?
INVITES: So much for any plan to invite both Rahm Emanuel and Jeremiah Wright to the same party. Seems the latter has a problem with the former's beliefs. A team of rivals indeed.
YOUR NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER AT WORK: Regular readers of this blog saw this happening from Day One.
DESPAIR & STATUS QUO: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wins in Iran. If this had been a real election than a simple circus, there'd be something to talk about.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
What Biden Is Really Saying...
I'm looking forward to this Sunday's Meet the Press with Joe Biden as the guest.
I expect that David Gregory will be as easy on the Vice President as Lesley Stahl was a few weeks back. If Joe errs, it won't be Gregory's fault. After all he probably enjoys the DC cocktail circuit as much as anyone.
But I will be disappointed if the Veep doesn't say something stupid which will probably be the story of the day on Sunday.
Unfortunately for Joe, there is now the expectation that he will say something silly. His track record demonstrates a proclivity to say the wrong thing at the wrong time. Or simply a politically tone-deaf notion. Go here and here and here to check out a few.
Despite the gaffes, Biden is not a stupid man. He's been re-elected a few times to represent the folks of Delaware in the Senate.
By my lights, he's not being served well by his staff. It is a bit of a surprise since his staff was considered to consist of political heavyweights. If so, these heavyweights don't know the first rule of staff work -- don't make the boss look bad. (Somebody should have prepped the Veep on the nature of the new Hudson River Tunnel.)
Of course, the fact that Biden has kept these under-performing staffers says plenty about Joe.
And it will say a lot about Obama if he keeps Biden on the ticket in 2012.
I expect that David Gregory will be as easy on the Vice President as Lesley Stahl was a few weeks back. If Joe errs, it won't be Gregory's fault. After all he probably enjoys the DC cocktail circuit as much as anyone.
But I will be disappointed if the Veep doesn't say something stupid which will probably be the story of the day on Sunday.
Unfortunately for Joe, there is now the expectation that he will say something silly. His track record demonstrates a proclivity to say the wrong thing at the wrong time. Or simply a politically tone-deaf notion. Go here and here and here to check out a few.
Despite the gaffes, Biden is not a stupid man. He's been re-elected a few times to represent the folks of Delaware in the Senate.
By my lights, he's not being served well by his staff. It is a bit of a surprise since his staff was considered to consist of political heavyweights. If so, these heavyweights don't know the first rule of staff work -- don't make the boss look bad. (Somebody should have prepped the Veep on the nature of the new Hudson River Tunnel.)
Of course, the fact that Biden has kept these under-performing staffers says plenty about Joe.
And it will say a lot about Obama if he keeps Biden on the ticket in 2012.
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