It looks like the theocracy in Iran isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Think about it for a moment.
In the zero sum game of Middle Eastern politics succession issues are normally resolved via the bullet rather than the ballot. But for the sake of discussion, let's assume that the opposition will have bullets -- lots of them. Then where would the leaders of the current regime go?
Iraq and Afghanistan? Not likely; too many American Soldiers there.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE? They were never fans of Iran's Shiite strain of Islam.
Jordan? Too close to Washington.
Syria? Not terribly secure.
In other words, it's not like they could flee and live out there years comfortably. Moreover, they would feel as if they had targets on their back. (The Mossad, I'm sure, wouldn't mind terminating a few of the mullahs.) Ironically, Iran may be the safest place for them -- as long as they hold power.
Furthermore, think of the shame of fleeing -- just like the Shah did 30 years ago.
So, it's likely that they're going to stay or die trying. In the interim, they will ratchet up the violence to keep the protesters in line.
A lot of blood may be shed, but it may not change a thing.
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